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BTC/ETH Allocation via Reinforcement Learning

An AI agent that learned when to invest and when to sit out

C42 Pilot decides daily how to split capital between Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Cash. Trained on 8+ years of market data – including crashes and rallies – the agent learned risk management from experience, not rules.

Observe. Decide. Learn.

A reinforcement learning loop trained across every market regime – bull runs, crashes, and sideways drift. The agent sees market state, chooses an allocation, and adapts based on outcomes.

1

Observe

The agent observes the current market state – prices, returns, volatility, and macroeconomic indicators – along with its own current portfolio allocation.

2

Decide

Based on its learned policy, the agent outputs target weights for BTC, ETH, and Cash. The weights always sum to 100% – the agent decides the split, not whether to trade.

3

Execute

The portfolio rebalances to the new weights. Transaction costs are factored in during training, so the agent naturally avoids excessive turnover.

4

Reward

The agent receives a risk-adjusted reward – returns minus a drawdown penalty. This teaches it to grow capital while protecting against large losses.

5

Learn

The policy is updated across hundreds of thousands of training steps, iterating through millions of daily decisions across 8+ years of market history.

Daily Allocation Weights

Daily Signal

BTC / ETH / Cash %

Every day, the agent outputs a new allocation. Any ratio from 100% crypto to 100% cash – the agent decides based on what it learned.

Learned Risk Management

No hardcoded rules

The agent discovered defensive behavior through training – it learned to reduce exposure before drawdowns, not because of a rule, but because it was rewarded for it.

Benchmark Tracking

vs BTC / ETH / 50:50

Cumulative performance chart with toggleable benchmarks. Select any time period to see how the agent compares to buy-and-hold strategies.

Live Testing Performance

Live testing uses daily allocation between March 2025 and March 2026. Displayed performance indicators exclude transaction costs.

+33.7%
C42 Pilot Return
1.17
Sharpe Ratio
−9.9%
Max Drawdown
+51.1pp
Alpha vs BTC
+27.0pp
Alpha vs ETH
C42 Pilot
+33.7%
BTC Hold
−17.3%
ETH Hold
+6.7%
0%

C42 Pilot returned +33.7% while BTC lost −17.3% over the same period. The agent kept drawdowns under 10% by moving to cash during downturns – behavior it learned from training, not from rules. Full daily allocation history is available in the live dashboard.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not investment advice.

Let the Agent Fly

Request your free 7-day trial or explore the live dashboard.